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Prediction for CME (2024-02-02T04:17:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-02T04:17Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28948/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the SE in all coronagraphs. Source is an eruption from AR 3571 with an associated impulsive M1.1 class flare that peaked at 2024-02-02T03:01Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131. Also observed as field line movement and dimming in SDO AIA 171/193/211, and dark filament material erupting in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304. It is possible that the L1 arrival signature unfolding over 2023-02-04 to 2023-02-06 includes the arrival of this (or another) CME arrival, as it includes a drop in temperature and density on 2024-02-05, however the gradual increases in Btotal and solar wind speed as well as rapid fluctuations of magnetic field components are largely more indicative of a high speed stream.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-05T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28950/1
Model Inputs:
2024-02-02T04:17:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-56.0, Lat.=-32.0, Speed=537.0, HalfAngle=40.0, Time21.5=2024-02-02T10:02Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-02-05T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-05T05:08Z
Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-08T06:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240202_100200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240202_100200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240202_100200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240202_100200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240202_100200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240202_100200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240202_100200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240202_100200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240202_100200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240202_100200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240202_100200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240202_100200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240202_100200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240202_100200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 61.03 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-02-02T20:58Z

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